A Double-Espresso for Mr. Schwanke... Why Governor Schweitzer Can Be Beat

Bill Schwanke recently gave Republicans a piece of his mind.

The gist: Don’t waste your time or talent running anybody against Governor Brian Schweitzer or Senator Max Baucus.

They’ll be sacrificial lambs.

There’s little to indicate that any Republican candidate, however attractive, will stand a chance against Baucus or Schweitzer. They’re too well entrenched, and by all indicators, too popular, to be unseated.

But in classic Schwanke humility that the Scoop wish he shared a little more of, Bill said he might not be totally closed on the issue.

If somebody has some strong, strong evidence that Baucus and/or Schweitzer truly are vulnerable my mind might be changed. But it would have to be double-espresso strong.

The Scoop thinks Schwanke is right on Baucus: he is as invulnerable as a politician can get. He has real power in Washington. He is humble and someone we generally like. He also has paid attention to issues on both sides of the isle. And let’s not forget he has $4 million in the bank. He already has the Scoop's vote.

After making the titanic mistake of throwing out Conrad Burns, Montanans won’t trade another truck-load of seniority, influence and accomplishment for a jar of snake oil. To steal a line from Burns, Baucus " Delivers for Montana". And in 99% of elections, that’s what matters.

But, the Scoop doesn't share the same assessment about Schweitzer. He is a crafty campaigner, and well financed. But that is were the comparison ends.

Schweitzer suffers from four problems that topple incumbents:

1. Schweitzer is under-accomplished: I can’t think of a meaningful thing he has done that anybody with a billion dollars, a monkey, and a dart board couldn’t have accomplished. We have to remember he promised to be more than an administrator, and with our historic challenges, that is what Montana needs.

One example: Where’s the evidence of the big economic changes he promised with his energy initiative: New energy plants? New out-of-state businesses or significant investments? Something to show Montana is “Open for Business” other than the slogan? We have lots of plans, programs and energy bills and tax credits, but show me a single big company that is doing something new in Montana?

All talk and little action? All slogans and little substance? Publicity hound? I'll let you decide, but that is what the Scoop thinks.

2. Schweitzer has become part of the government problem: He has broken significant reform-oriented campaign promises that were the key to his election. Remember how he promised to governor as a Republican and a Democrat, working on behalf of Montana?

The reality is that he has presided over the most partisan government in recent history and has shrunk from any roll as a bi-partisan statesman. During the end of the last legislative session, when he could have helped ease tensions and promoted consensus in the Legislature, he left the state to be on a liberal talk show and attend some political fundraisers. It sounds like a Republican talking point, but it also happens to be the truth. Montana needs leadership and Schweizter hasn't provided it.

On top of this he has ethics issues around rewarding political operatives, family and friends with nice state jobs. But studying Schweizter's ethical laspes and double standards would take a whole other post.

3. Schweitzer is out-of-touch with mainstream Montanans on key issues: He promised to governor as a fiscal conservative, but rather has grown government by historic proportions. State spending increased 21% after the last session. It increased 12% the session before. At this rate, state government will be between one-third to one-half bigger by the time he leaves office.

He has squandered the state surplus through unnecessary spending and refused to return money to over-taxed Montanans who are struggling to pay increasing tax bills. He has exacerbated systemic education problems by adding a well intentioned by under funded program (Full-Day Kindergarten) on top of a system that is already poorly organized and funded. The problems with corrections and entitlement programs: they don’t have enough money!

Schweizter is dodging all the big problem his "big ideas" were supposed to help fix. Tom Siebel has done more to address our corrections problem in the last four years than Schweitzer. Maybe he should be governor?

4. Schweitzer is increasingly unlikable: Montanans are concerned about constant feedback from Democrats, Republicans and non-government types that work closely with the Gov. They report he is a partisan bully, especially if he doesn’t get what HE wants.

It would be one thing if it where just Mike Lange and Judy Martz, but this quiet drum beat comes from all sides. A few brave souls say this to the press; many others talk about it quietly at parties, looking over their shoulder like they are waiting for the Gestapo to arrive.

Nobody likes a bully.

And for a much lesser reason, we are all sick of Jag.

Even if Schweizter stays, the mutt has got to go.

The Real Scoop: Montana’s love affair with Schweitzer is over. Mainstream Montanans want an alternative.

Good Republicans like Bob Keenan should not shrink from this fight. They wouldn't be a sacrificial lamb. They would find deep support across the state and, if they ran a strong but losing campaign, would build future goodwill.

Bill, the Scoop doesn't think these are weak reasons; but that they are double-espresso strong.

We'll let Montana decide. But first, the Republicans need to put forth a strong candidate.