Obama Lags, Targets Montana

Recent polls show that the Obama campaign continues to defy campaign traditions - this time forgoing the traditional bounce that a candidate receives after besting the primary field!

Political observers are starting to ask: "Why hasn't Obama opened up a bigger lead?"... especially at a time when he should be at the top of his game.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Obama, D-Ill., leading McCain, R-Ariz., by a margin of 48 percent to 42 percent.

It is a surprisingly small lead considering that the incumbent Republican president George Bush is at record lows and public opinion overwhelmingly feels the country is on the "wrong track".

Adding to that deflating feeling previous known as Obama-mania, the Real Clear Politics national poll average shows Obama clinging to a scanty 4.0 point lead, with Obama at 46.3 and McCain at 42.3. (Nothing like dancing along the margin of error to produce a feeling of comfort.)

But, normal politics this season is not. All but abandoning a 50-state strategy outlined weeks before, Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe has declared a new unconventional strategy that includes targeting Montana.

"You have a lot of ways to get to 270," Plouffe said. "Our goal is not to be reliant on one state on November 4th."

Plouffe and his aides are weighing where to contest, and where chances are too slim to marshal a large effort. A win in Virginia (13 electoral votes) or Georgia (15 votes) could give Obama a shot if he, like Kerry, loses Ohio or Florida.

Plouffe also has been touting Obama's appeal in once Republican-leaning states where Democrats have made gains in recent gubernatorial and congressional races, such as Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Montana, Alaska and North Dakota.

The last poll conducted in Montana had McCain up by 8 points...at a time where McCain was not at his strongest, and right as Obama was spending a record amount on state-wide television advertising. Of course, that has not stopped the national press from buzzing about a Democrat hostile take-over.

While the Scoop applauds Plouffe for thinking outside traditional boundaries, the idea of Obama winning Montana seems distant, if not totally implausible.

This is especially true if Obama's strategy rests solely on confusing people about his position as an advocate of gun control and as a panderer to the hard-working Montana farming community with overblown big-government solutions to a wide-range of problems that do not exist.

Even Time Magazine, in their over-the-top leg-humping article of last year on western Democrats noted that Hillary and Obama defy the mold of the libertarian, plainspoken type that have recently won in the Rocky Mountain West.

In fact, the real flaw in the Rocky Mountain Blue electoral fantasies is that the Democrats' leading candidates, especially the junior Senator from New York, elicit groans in the Rockies.

"I just don't get this Obama thing, either," says Orbanek, the Grand Junction newspaper publisher.

New Mexico's popular Latino Governor Bill Richardson will probably try in 2008, but Richardson has spent most of his career in Washington and sometimes tries a bit too hard at playing the Western card: his cowboy boots are ostrich skin, which is permissible but fancy. Richardson certainly can't compete with Republicans John McCain or Mitt Romney, either of whom would easily sweep the region.

Of course, this clear thinking was before Obama-mania set in.

Maybe Boise native Jim Messina (hey...I thought this guy was from Montana?) can give him a clue. Or, better yet, maybe they will target Idaho.

I haven't seen this much nonsense since working in Silicon Valley in the early 90's and overhearing a group of prominent business leaders declare an end to the old rules of corporate valuation.

I think they said it was all about momentum rather than results.

The Scoop thinks this election will be about issues...and who has a proven record of reform. This, at least, is what we'll be talking about at here.